Predict the Moon kick
A prediction is a reasoned expectation, not a guess.
A kick on the Moon
On Earth a footballer kicks the ball at 20 m/s, 45° upward. The model says it lands 40.8 m away. Nobody can test a kick on the Moon right now, but the Moon’s gravity is weaker.
Where will the same kick land on the Moon?
What this lesson covers
The idea
Well-established laws, theories and models let us anticipate what will happen under new conditions, even before or without any test being possible; such predictions are reasoned expectations based on evidence, not guesses.
A kick on the Moon
On Earth a footballer kicks the ball at 20 m/s, 45° upward. The model says it lands 40.8 m away. Nobody can test a kick on the Moon right now, but the Moon’s gravity is weaker.
Where will the same kick land on the Moon?
- Shorter than 40.8 m
- Exactly the same
- Much farther
Place your prediction
Drag the ? flag where you think the ball will land. Then kick. The model is run with the Moon’s gravity.
Reasoned, not guessed
Well-established laws, theories and models let us anticipate what will happen under new conditions, even before or without any test. Such predictions are reasoned expectations based on evidence, not guesses.
Scientists predict how far a kicked football travels, how much carbon dioxide a reaction makes, or how breathing changes while running. Each prediction comes from ideas that have already been tested.
- A guess | A prediction
- Based on | a feeling | a well-tested model
- Moon kick | “Maybe 100 m?” | gravity is 6 times weaker, so about 6 × 40.8 ≈ 245 m
Notes
Well-established laws, theories and models let us anticipate what will happen under new conditions, even before or without a test. Predictions are reasoned expectations, not guesses.
Check yourself
Which one is a scientific prediction?
Where do scientific predictions come from?
On Earth the kick goes 40.8 m. On the Moon it goes about 6 times farther. About how far? (to the nearest 10 m)
Answer: 245 m
40.8 × 6 ≈ 245 m. The model gives 246.9 m using g = 1.62 m s⁻².
Biology principles let us predict what happens to your breathing when you run. Which prediction is reasoned?
- I feel the ball will go far. A feeling is not evidence.
- Moon gravity is about 6 times weaker, so the kick should go about 6 times farther — correct. Yes. It uses a tested idea.
- It will land wherever it lands. That says nothing.
- Luck. Predictions are reasoned, not lucky.
- The opinion of most people. Evidence decides, not votes.
- Well-established laws, theories and models — correct. Yes. They let us anticipate new conditions.
- Breathing gets faster, because the body needs to take in more oxygen — correct. Yes. It uses a biological principle.
- Breathing stops. There is no reason for this.
- Breathing stays exactly the same. Running needs more oxygen, so breathing changes.